Thanks to graph neural networks (GNNs), semi-supervised node classification has shown the state-of-the-art performance in graph data. However, GNNs have not considered different types of uncertainties associated with class probabilities to minimize risk of increasing misclassification under uncertainty in real life. In this work, we propose a multi-source uncertainty framework using a GNN that reflects various types of predictive uncertainties in both deep learning and belief/evidence theory domains for node classification predictions. By collecting evidence from the given labels of training nodes, the Graph-based Kernel Dirichlet distribution Estimation (GKDE) method is designed for accurately predicting node-level Dirichlet distributions and detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) nodes. We validated the outperformance of our proposed model compared to the state-of-the-art counterparts in terms of misclassification detection and OOD detection based on six real network datasets. We found that dissonance-based detection yielded the best results on misclassification detection while vacuity-based detection was the best for OOD detection. To clarify the reasons behind the results, we provided the theoretical proof that explains the relationships between different types of uncertainties considered in this work.

Most uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches provide a single scalar value as a measure of model reliability. However, different uncertainty measures could provide complementary information on the prediction confidence. Even measures targeting the same type of uncertainty (e.g., ensemble-based and density-based measures of epistemic uncertainty) may capture different failure modes. We take a multidimensional view on UQ by stacking complementary UQ measures into a vector. Such vectors are assigned with Monge-Kantorovich ranks produced by an optimal-transport-based ordering method. The prediction is then deemed more uncertain than the other if it has a higher rank. The resulting VecUQ-OT algorithm uses entropy-regularized optimal transport. The transport map is learned on vectors of scores from in-distribution data and, by design, applies to unseen inputs, including out-of-distribution cases, without retraining. Our framework supports flexible non-additive uncertainty fusion (including aleatoric and epistemic components). It yields a robust ordering for downstream tasks such as selective prediction, misclassification detection, out-of-distribution detection, and selective generation. Across synthetic, image, and text data, VecUQ-OT shows high efficiency even when individual measures fail. The code for the method is available at: https://github.com/stat-ml/multidimensional_uncertainty.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in aligning visual and textual modalities, enabling a wide range of applications in multimodal understanding and generation. While they excel in zero-shot and transfer learning scenarios, VLMs remain susceptible to misclassification, often yielding confident yet incorrect predictions. This limitation poses a significant risk in safety-critical domains, where erroneous predictions can lead to severe consequences. In this work, we introduce TrustVLM, a training-free framework designed to address the critical challenge of estimating when VLM's predictions can be trusted. Motivated by the observed modality gap in VLMs and the insight that certain concepts are more distinctly represented in the image embedding space, we propose a novel confidence-scoring function that leverages this space to improve misclassification detection. We rigorously evaluate our approach across 17 diverse datasets, employing 4 architectures and 2 VLMs, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, with improvements of up to 51.87% in AURC, 9.14% in AUROC, and 32.42% in FPR95 compared to existing baselines. By improving the reliability of the model without requiring retraining, TrustVLM paves the way for safer deployment of VLMs in real-world applications. The code is available at https://github.com/EPFL-IMOS/TrustVLM.

Thanks to graph neural networks (GNNs), semi-supervised node classification has shown the state-of-the-art performance in graph data.

Graph learning has been crucial to many real-world tasks, but they are often studied with a closed-world assumption, with all possible labels of data known a priori. To enable effective graph learning in an open and noisy environment, it is critical to inform the model users when the model makes a wrong prediction to in-distribution data of a known class, i.e., misclassification detection or when the model encounters out-of-distribution from novel classes, i.e., out-of-distribution detection. This paper introduces Evidential Reasoning Network (EVINET), a framework that addresses these two challenges by integrating Beta embedding within a subjective logic framework. EVINET includes two key modules: Dissonance Reasoning for misclassification detection and Vacuity Reasoning for out-of-distribution detection. Extensive experiments demonstrate that EVINET outperforms state-of-the-art methods across multiple metrics in the tasks of in-distribution classification, misclassification detection, and out-of-distribution detection. EVINET demonstrates the necessity of uncertainty estimation and logical reasoning for misclassification detection and out-of-distribution detection and paves the way for open-world graph learning. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/SSSKJ/EviNET.

Reliable prediction by classifiers is crucial for their deployment in high security and dynamically changing situations. However, modern neural networks often exhibit overconfidence for misclassified predictions, highlighting the need for confidence estimation to detect errors. Despite the achievements obtained by existing methods on small-scale datasets, they all require training from scratch and there are no efficient and effective misclassification detection (MisD) methods, hindering practical application towards large-scale and ever-changing datasets. In this paper, we pave the way to exploit vision language model (VLM) leveraging text information to establish an efficient and general-purpose misclassification detection framework. By harnessing the power of VLM, we construct FSMisD, a Few-Shot prompt learning framework for MisD to refrain from training from scratch and therefore improve tuning efficiency. To enhance misclassification detection ability, we use adaptive pseudo sample generation and a novel negative loss to mitigate the issue of overconfidence by pushing category prompts away from pseudo features. We conduct comprehensive experiments with prompt learning methods and validate the generalization ability across various datasets with domain shift. Significant and consistent improvement demonstrates the effectiveness, efficiency and generalizability of our approach.

As deep neural networks(DNN) become increasingly prevalent, particularly in high-stakes areas such as autonomous driving and healthcare, the ability to detect incorrect predictions of models and intervene accordingly becomes crucial for safety. In this work, we investigate the detection of misclassified inputs for image classification models from the lens of adversarial perturbation: we propose to use robust radius (a.k.a. input-space margin) as a confidence metric and design two efficient estimation algorithms, RR-BS and RR-Fast, for misclassification detection. Furthermore, we design a training method called Radius Aware Training (RAT) to boost models' ability to identify mistakes. Extensive experiments show our method could achieve up to 29.3% reduction on AURC and 21.62% reduction in FPR@95TPR, compared with previous methods.

Thanks to graph neural networks (GNNs), semi-supervised node classification has shown the state-of-the-art performance in graph data. However, GNNs have not considered different types of uncertainties associated with class probabilities to minimize risk of increasing misclassification under uncertainty in real life. In this work, we propose a multi-source uncertainty framework using a GNN that reflects various types of predictive uncertainties in both deep learning and belief/evidence theory domains for node classification predictions. By collecting evidence from the given labels of training nodes, the Graph-based Kernel Dirichlet distribution Estimation (GKDE) method is designed for accurately predicting node-level Dirichlet distributions and detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) nodes. We validated the outperformance of our proposed model compared to the state-of-the-art counterparts in terms of misclassification detection and OOD detection based on six real network datasets.

Vision-centric semantic occupancy prediction plays a crucial role in autonomous driving, which requires accurate and reliable predictions from low-cost sensors. Although having notably narrowed the accuracy gap with LiDAR, there is still few research effort to explore the reliability in predicting semantic occupancy from camera. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing semantic occupancy prediction models from a reliability perspective for the first time. Despite the gradual alignment of camera-based models with LiDAR in term of accuracy, a significant reliability gap persists. To addresses this concern, we propose ReliOcc, a method designed to enhance the reliability of camera-based occupancy networks. ReliOcc provides a plug-and-play scheme for existing models, which integrates hybrid uncertainty from individual voxels with sampling-based noise and relative voxels through mix-up learning. Besides, an uncertainty-aware calibration strategy is devised to further enhance model reliability in offline mode. Extensive experiments under various settings demonstrate that ReliOcc significantly enhances model reliability while maintaining the accuracy of both geometric and semantic predictions. Importantly, our proposed approach exhibits robustness to sensor failures and out of domain noises during inference.

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do not provide an effective way to infer the real uncertainty associated with the model's predictions. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven measure of relative uncertainty to an observer for misclassification detection. By learning patterns in the distribution of soft-predictions, our uncertainty measure can identify misclassified samples based on the predicted class probabilities. Interestingly, according to the proposed measure, soft-predictions that correspond to misclassified instances can carry a large amount of uncertainty, even though they may have low Shannon entropy. We demonstrate empirical improvements over multiple image classification tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art misclassification detection methods.